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Target and Off Target

6/14/09   forum

Taken as a game, the goal of itatsi is to score points. Points are a surrogate for reproductive success. Taken as a simple simulation of evolution, a population that includes scoreable words is healthy and successful.

In the column to the right, we have the results of a demo run in itatsi, a hundred generations with mothers picked by a fitness algorithm. It is reasonable to ask whether the fitness algorithm has a target or goal.

There are about eight billion possible combinations of seven letters. Of these eight billion, about 31,000 are English words in the itatsi dictionary. The chances of producing a seven letter word by random toss of the dice is about one in 260,000. The Demo player produced a seven letter word in 23 generations and proceeded to find several more rather quickly. The 31,000 seven letter words in the dictionary are not known to the Weasel mutation algorithm, nor are they known to the algorithm that scores "fitness" and selects the best candidate in each generation. The fitness algorithm knows about two and three letter embedded "words." No attempt is made to check the current population against all of the possible 31,000 "targets."

Even if the attempt were made to score a generation of itatsi children against 31,000 possible targets, the time and computer resources required would be prohibitive. The Training Weasel runs on an anonymous server at an unknown location, with time purchased for a few dollars a month. Its capabilities are not known, but it probably isn't a super computer.

One of the oddest phenomena in the history of the evolution debate is the persistent misunderstanding of how evolution achieves "goals." The simplest and most accurate response to the problem of goals is that there are none. But this requires some explanation.

Television and popular science articles have trained us to think of evolution as producing adaptations. We often see phrases like "environmental pressure" or "selection pressure." We have been led to think of evolution as an active hunt for solutions to problems. Evolve or die.

This is a sad misunderstanding of what is going on and an unfortunate opportunity for deliberate misrepresentation of the process of evolution. The two most prominent critics of Evolution, Michael Behe and William Dembski, have spent the greater part of their professional careers trying to prove that Darwinian selection is an inefficient and inadequate process for finding "targets" in a sea of possibilities. Behe, for example, has issued a challenge to experimental biologists to demonstrate that a bacterial flagellum can evolve under controlled laboratory conditions. Dembski has written books and papers arguing that evolutionary algorithms are no more efficient than random searches.

All the discussion of targets and searches is a silly and unproductive diversion. Humans can have targets. They can, for example, have breed standards for pedigreed dogs. Players of itatsi can have a word in mind as a goal. Dawkins' Weasel program has a target. (It is worth noting that long before evolution critics jumped on the target aspect of Weasel, Dawkins anticipated the criticism.) In The Blind Watchmaker, (Norton, 1996, p. 72) he writes:

Life isn't like that. Evolution has no long-term goal. There is no long-distance target, no final perfection to serve as a criterion for selection.

The argument [bacteria in a laboratory are not likely to evolve a flagellum: therefore evolution can't produce complex structures], is logically equivalent to arguing that a lottery winner cheated or received divine assistance because he or she can't do it again under controlled laboratory controls. The term for calculating the odds against something happening after it has already happened is Retrospective Astonishment. It makes some sense if you have reason to suspect fraud, but the history of science has few exhibits of weighted ping pong balls among natural phenomena. The logical fallacy lies in assuming that a flagellum, or a particular lottery winner was a prior goal or target. The math may be done correctly, and the odds against may be astonishing, but odds are irrelevant if there is no target specified in advance.

So what is going on in the game? If the object of the game isn't to find a target, what is the object? The answer is both simple and subtle. when you play itatsi, you shape a population. You do so in much the same way you shape a hedge or a topiary, by pruning. It would be nice to have the resources of some of the serious evolution simulators, the ability to track tens of thousands of individuals over thousands of generations. But we don't have that. We have one small population and one mother per generation. But within those confines, we can see the shaping of a population by pruning.

Without knowing more than one language, you can run the demo and see a random seed shaped in a few generations into a population that resembles a selected language. The shaping occurs not because there is a search or a target, but because the demo selects the child of each generation that most nearly resembles the selected language (based almost entirely on letter pairs). Looking at the Demo listing to the right, you might ask yourself whether the itatsi Demo selector had the word "TESTING" in mind when it chose "RYSCATA" as more fit than "AYSCATA" in the first generation.

Itatsi may look like a search for a target, but there is an important difference. Itatsi can produce children that look like members of a language family, but have never been in a dictionary and have never been in print - words like "COBLING" and "CHALING" and "SULTING." Nothing separates these constructions from real words except context. In another environment or another language, these might be scoreable words.

The itatsi demo can shape a population into something that looks like words in the language of choice, without a specific target. It can make new and original language objects. A selection process implies criteria, but requires neither intelligence nor targets to produce novel and complex structures. The entire argument regarding targets is a smokescreen. An oddly transparant smokescreen.

Gen Pts Word   Lang
  1  04 SCAT    En [AYSCATA]
  1  01 CAT     En [AYSCATA]
  2     SCAT       [RYSCATA]
  3     SCAT       [YSCATAY]
  3  01 TAY     En [YSCATAY]
  4     SCAT       [TSCATAY]
  5     CAT        [TOCATAY]
  5  01 OCA     En [TOCATAY]
  5  01 TOC     En [TOCATAY]
  6     CAT        [TOCATAH]
  7  01 OAT     En [TOOATAH]
  7  01 TOO     En [TOOATAH]
  8     OAT        [TOOATAB]
  8  01 TAB     En [TOOATAB]
  9     OAT        [TOOATOB]
 10  04 ATOK    En [TOOATOK]
 11     ATOK       [COOATOK]
 11  01 COO     En [COOATOK]
 12  04 ATOP    En [COOATOP]
 12  01 TOP     En [COOATOP]
 13     COO        [COOATON]
 13  01 TON     En [COOATON]
 14     COO        [COOATOR]
 14  01 TOR     En [COOATOR]
 15     COO        [COOATNG]
 16     COO        [COOAONG]
 17  01 CON     En [CONAONG]
 18  04 HONG    En [CONHONG]
 18  01 HON     En [CONHONG]
 19  04 HING    En [CONHING]
 19  01 HIN     En [CONHING]
 20  04 NAIN    En [XONAING]
 20  01 AIN     En [XONAING]
 21     NAIN       [IONAING]
 21  01 ION     En [IONAING]
 22     NAIN       [PONAING]
 23  50 PONKING En [PONKING]
 23  04 KING    En [PONKING]
 23  04 PONK    En [PONKING]
 23  01 KIN     En [PONKING]
 24  50 BOCKING En [BOCKING]
 24  04 BOCK    En [BOCKING]
 25     BOCKING    [BOCKING]
 26     KING       [KOCKING]
 27  50 ROCKING En [ROCKING]
 27  04 ROCK    En [ROCKING]
 27  01 ROC     En [ROCKING]
 28     KING       [FOCKING]
 29     KING       [FOCKING]
 30  04 JOCK    En [JOCKING]
 31  50 COCKING En [COCKING]
 31  04 COCK    En [COCKING]
 32  50 CORKING En [CORKING]
 32  04 CORK    En [CORKING]
 32  01 COR     En [CORKING]
 33  04 LING    En [CORLING]
 33  01 LIN     En [CORLING]
 34  50 CORNING En [CORNING]
 34  09 CORNI   En [CORNING]
 34  04 CORN    En [CORNING]
 35     CORNING    [CORNING]
 36  01 COL     En [COLNING]
 37  50 CONNING En [CONNING]
 37  16 ONNING  En [CONNING]
 37  04 CONN    En [CONNING]
 38     CON        [CONCING]
 39     CON        [CONCING]
 40     LING       [CONLING]
 41     LING       [CONLING]
 42  04 BLIN    En [COBLING]
 42  01 COB     En [COBLING]
 43  50 COOLING En [COOLING]
 43  04 COOL    En [COOLING]
 44  50 COWLING En [COWLING]
 44  16 OWLING  En [COWLING]
 44  04 COWL    En [COWLING]
 44  01 COW     En [COWLING]
 44  01 OWL     En [COWLING]
 45     COWLING    [COWLING]
 46     BLIN       [COBLING]
 47  50 COALING En [COALING]
 47  04 COAL    En [COALING]
 48  16 HALING  En [CHALING]
 48  04 CHAL    En [CHALING]
 48  01 CHA     En [CHALING]
 49     HALING     [CHALING]
 50     HALING     [LHALING]
 51  50 WHALING En [WHALING]
 51  01 WHA     En [WHALING]
 52     LING       [WLALING]
 53     LING       [FLALING]
 54     LING       [OLALING]
 55     LING       [ELALING]
 56     LING       [WLALING]
 57     LING       [LLALING]
 58     LING       [LCALING]
 59     LING       [ACALING]
 60     LING       [DCALING]
 61     LING       [OCALING]
 62     LING       [PCALING]
 63     LING       [PIALING]
 63  04 PIAL    En [PIALING]
 63  01 PIA     En [PIALING]
 64     LING       [PIELING]
 64  01 PIE     En [PIELING]
 65  04 PIET    En [PIETING]
 65  04 TING    En [PIETING]
 65  01 TIN     En [PIETING]
 66     TING       [PIGTING]
 66  01 PIG     En [PIGTING]
 67     TING       [PIOTING]
 68     TING       [PUOTING]
 69     TING       [SUOTING]
 70     TING       [SULTING]
 71     TING       [SULTING]
 72     TING       [SUCTING]
 73  09 STING   En [SUSTING]
 73  01 SUS     En [SUSTING]
 74     STING      [CUSTING]
 75     STING      [CUSTING]
 76  50 RUSTING En [RUSTING]
 76  04 RUST    En [RUSTING]
 77  50 MUSTING En [MUSTING]
 77  04 MUST    En [MUSTING]
 77  01 MUS     En [MUSTING]
 78     STING      [MESTING]
 78  01 EST     En [MESTING]
 78  01 MES     En [MESTING]
 79     STING      [DESTING]
 80     STING      [PESTING]
 80  04 PEST    En [PESTING]
 80  01 PES     En [PESTING]
 81     STING      [PESTING]
 82  09 CESTI   En [CESTING]
 83     CESTI      [CESTING]
 84     STING      [XESTING]
 85     STING      [PESTING]
 86  50 TESTING En [TESTING]
 86  04 TEST    En [TESTING]
 86  01 TES     En [TESTING]
 87     TESTING    [TESTING]
 88     STING      [FESTING]
 88  04 FEST    En [FESTING]
 89     STING      [FESTING]
 90     STING      [FOSTING]
 91     STING      [FOSTING]
 92     STING      [DOSTING]
 92  04 DOST    En [DOSTING]
 92  01 DOS     En [DOSTING]
 93     STING      [DOSTING]
 94     STING      [ZOSTING]
 94  01 ZOS     En [ZOSTING]
 95     STING      [ZOSTING]
 96     TING       [ZOTTING]
 97  50 LOTTING En [LOTTING]
 97  01 LOT     En [LOTTING]
 98     TING       [IOTTING]
 99     TING       [IOTTING]
100     TING       [AOTTING]
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What the heck is the Training Weasel?

5/26/09

Basically the Training Weasel is a very good player, a kibitzer who stands over your shoulder and makes suggestions. So far, there are two generations of the Trainer. The first, is a simple daemon that looks at the words after they are created and scores them by letter and position frequency. The second requires some explanation.

First of all, it is important to understand that all versions of itatsi use the same child generator, a simple Dawkins' Weasel program that makes multiple copies of a parent while applying an occasional mutation to letters as they are copied. The central core of itatsi is an imperfect replicator that knows nothing of the past or future or goals. All children are generated before any colors are applied or any children are evaluated for fitness. Colors are added to make game play easier. They do nothing and imply nothing that could not be done by a human player. Colors are applied to help human players quickly identify the children that have been mutated.

The Trainer, however, has a special place. The silver highlighted child has been evaluated by a fitness daemon and designated as the most fit of the population. So what does that mean?

First, some terminology . Itatsi thinks of the children as genomes having some level of fitness. They are instances of a genetic code. Codes have no meaning in and of themselves. They are interpreted. In the game, the ultimate interpreter is the scoring program, which awards points for children that are in the itatsi dictionary. But there are lower level interpreters, the players who select children based on their  resemblance  to words. The question addressed by the Training Weasel is: can there be a simple algorithm that evaluates progress toward wordness without having a massive database of 26x26x26x26x26x26x26 possible children?

The answer proposed here is yes, by applying a bit of pseudo-biological thinking. First, itatsi thinks of its children as genomes composed of two letter genes, with each gene having 26x26 possible variations or alleles. A child having n letters has n-1 genes (due to the way language users  interpret the code). So the genes of "WEASEL" are "WE", "EA", "AS", "SE", and "EL". The Training Weasel algorithm breaks down each child into its genes and scores each gene by the occurrence frequency of its allele.

There are 26x26 possible alleles formed by letter pairs using the English alphabet. In reality, about 80 percent of possible alleles are used.

But not with equal frequency. Itatsi knows how often each allele occurs in each possible position, and uses this information to score genes for fitness. The fitness of a child is the sum of the fitness scores for each gene. The database has only a few thousand entries, far fewer than the number of dictionary words, and enormously fewer than the number of possible children.

So is this smuggling information into the Weasel program? If the question applies to the imperfect replicator, the answer is absolutely not. All the intelligence is in the selectors, the Training Weasel and the human player. And isn't this what the theory of evolution has said all along?

The Training Weasel has a number of interesting behaviors. It can form words, but doesn't necessarily recognize them. It quickly forms pronounceable letter strings, most of which are not words. It often scores the same string several times as best without knowing that it is no longer eligible for game scoring. It can get stuck, scoring non-words as best, because their genes, taken individually, are best. The Training Weasel is blind to the ultimate selecting environment.

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Based on "Weasel" as described by Richard Dawkins
Weasel Javascript algorithm coded by Wesley R. Elsberry.
Game concept, scoring, coding and design by Midwifetoad
Itatsi coded using Macromedia HomeSite 5.5

Weasel Words Game concept, scoring, coding and design are the intellectual property of James L. Sowder.
All Right Reserved. The trade name Weasel Words applies to the word game implemented by this web page, and to the underlying concept, the user interface, and the scoring system. This game may not be hosted on any web site without the express permission of the author.


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